Many numbers have been thrown around about how many housing units might be built with the proposed zoning. These high numbers are reported with no explanation of what they mean and how they were calculated. One does not need a math or engineering degree to understand and explain the plan numbers.
1. Zoning is about setting the ground rules for what is allowed. It is not about what will get built. The numbers were calculated using the state’s compliance model which is only theoretical. The state says the “model was “developed…to verify compliance with the [new law]. It is not intended to be…a detailed build out analysis.”
2. Many people mistakenly assume these numbers represent an addition to the number of housing units currently in Newton. They do not. The model assumes Newton has zero homes in it. Deducting the existing units from the number the model is a critical calculation missing from the numbers published.
3. The state’s model assumes all the land included could be used for housing – leaving no churches, stores, or municipal buildings. Newton will never become a city with only homes.
4. The model assumes no room for parking. Even if not mandated, parking will continue to be built. The Planning Department calculated a drop in the high theoretical number of units by 30% if there was just one parking space per housing unit.
5. The numbers assume that everything that is allowed to be built, is built. City buildout takes decades and generations – it is an incremental and slow process. The high numbers you hear being promoted assume 100% of our built city will change – this will never happen.
Have you heard any of these explanations? Do the numbers really mean anything? Maybe as a “compliance tool” for the state. Beyond that, not much.
Kathy Pillsbury
Newton Highlands