We need to properly vet the documents and data on which housing goals are based. The state of Massachusetts doesn’t plan with realistic numbers. And Newton’s leaders follow the state’s numbers, which lead our politicians astray.
After a recent query to the Mayor’s office, I found her claim that the state needs 200,000 units was taken from the 2021 blue-ribbon ribbon report commissioned by Governor Baker, Preparing for the Future of Work in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
This excellent report has been used in biased, inaccurate ways by our state and local leaders. It said that its conclusions were tentative, that it was not making policy recommendations, and that we would need to produce from 12,500 to 20,000 new housing units per year over roughly a decade. So, the 200,000 housing units ostensibly needed statewide are actually the top of the range, while our leaders have not mentioned its lower end ─ 125,000 units.
Even the lower end of the range (125,000) may be too high. Remote work may drastically change the need for housing near city centers. And the report’s worst-case assumption that Boston’s commercial real estate market would decline by 20% is close to being fulfilled, according to recent reporting by The Boston Globe. Meanwhile the state has authorized more remote work for its workers, and many businesses are moving from Boston and Cambridge and not renewing their leases.
If 125,000 units is a more realistic state-wide estimate than 200,000, why should the 175 “MBTA Communities” be tasked with building 300,000 units? And Newton with 8,330?
Furthermore, the MBTA Communities Act requirement is ignoring tens of thousands of housing units planned for construction in Boston and Springfield.
Peter Bruce
Newtonville